The newly released report "Klimawende Ausblick 2025" (Climate Outlook 2025) by researchers of the cluster of excellence CLICCS at the University of Hamburg was presented in an in-person meeting gathering researchers, practitioners and politicians. The report analyzes the challenges and drivers of climate change from a social science perspective and focuses on the question how far the state-set goal of climate neutrality by 2045 is plausible and how this can be achieved in times of backlash and declining resonance. The project, led by Professor Stefan Aykut, examined whether key societal processes will generate sufficient momentum to meet Germany's climate targets. These analyzed drivers include among others national and international climate policy, climate movements, and climate litigation.
Is Germany on the path for climate neutrality?
The study concludes that, under current conditions, it is hardly plausible for Germany to reach climate neutrality by 2045. For many, this might not be a surprising finding, but the report uncovers in detail the current developments of different drivers of transformation. For example, despite stronger awareness, delayed action from politics and industry, harmful consumption trends, a growing right‑wing backlash and declining public support all threaten the transformation. Based on interviews, research, and media analysis, five of the seven drivers examined show partial support for climate neutrality—but none generates enough momentum to achieve it on time. The researchers warn of self‑reinforcing cycles of delay and escalation, where postponed measures make mitigation costlier, reduce acceptance of new policies, and trigger social tensions over the fair distribution of costs. Municipal governments and local initiatives emerge in the report as important engines of progress. Moreover, local administrations have built lasting projects and structures that maintain climate action even during phases of political fatigue or public scepticism.
Climate litigation as a driver for climate neutrality?
Another analysed driver is the role of climate litigation in Germany. This aspect is particularly interesting for the Trans4Demo Project, where we conduct embedded case studies in several countries and thereby focusing also on legal cases. In Germany, one embedded case is the famous climate ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court in 2021, which led to an adaptation of the Climate Protection Law. Aiming at understanding more profoundly the impact of these cases of conflict and their impact on sustainable transition and on liberal democracies the report provides comprehensive insights. Here, the researchers see climate lawsuits as an important counter‑cyclical driver that can sustain ambition when political will falters. However, the study also stresses that the impact of climate litigation remains limited to certain case types and cannot replace broader political or social momentum. We explored these issues further in a workshop with environmental lawyer Roda Verheyen, who was among the complainants in the constitutional complaint that led to the landmark 2021 climate decision of the Federal Constitutional Court. In the workshop, we discussed the importance of climate litigation for Germany and Europe, especially when climate movements are less visible. One aspect highlighted in the debate was that lawsuits are now easier to conduct due to legal densification, for example, through the Paris Agreement and the Federal Climate Protection Act in Germany. However, the real-world impact on emission reduction is rather limited. The discussion also showed the hope placed in climate litigation as bulwark for climate protection in times of declining priority and support. But, it became clear that positive effects for climate neutrality are not a foregone conclusion since litigation remains most effective when combined with activism, public debate, and policymaking.
Considering the impacts of climate litigation beyond the sustainable transition
The presented “Klimawende Ausblick” report serves as a vital complement to natural scientific climate assessments and underscores the importance of societal resonance for a transition towards climate neutrality. Although the report provides comprehensive insights into the role of climate litigation for a sustainable transition, pressing questions remain: how long can they sustain this role amid shifting societal priorities and the rise of populism in Germany? Can legal claims also cause negative resonance and increased societal backlash? These open questions highlight the importance of understanding the broader implications of climate lawsuits—not only for the sustainable transformation, but also for our liberal democracies. Considering the results of this report for the case analysis in Germany, case studies from the Trans4Demo project can make a valuable contribution, focusing not only on the impacts of sustainable transition through legal cases but also on its impact on liberal democracy.